INTELTRENDS: While all eyes are fixed on Egypt, is anyone watching Pakistan?

©  Inteltrends
By Steve in Wisconsin
February 1, 2011
 

The popular uprising currently underway in Egypt is grabbing the world’s attention, but it is also grabbing the attention of Muslims in other states.

Some media commentaries mention nearby regimes in Algeria, Jordan and Yemen, and speculate as to whether or not they will follow suit. However, analysts are largely overlooking Pakistan — a tinderbox and U.S. ally — whose people are also facing price increases in food and fuel, shortages of goods, utilities and services, plus growing unemployment. These are the same catalysts that launched rebellions in Tunisia and Egypt.

Public dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s pro-Western (seemingly spineless) President Zardari and his government’s inability to stem U.S. drone attacks inside Pakistan’s tribal areas, coupled with a growing interest in fundamentalist Islam have brought Pakistanis’ tolerance level of the status quo to just below simmering. Keep in mind, also, that if there were ever a country that could mobilize hundreds of thousands, or even millions of people at the drop of a hat, it’s Pakistan.

Pakistan is very technologically advanced: cellphones, high-speed internet, and a sizeable blogging network need only to be inspired to rapidly mobilize the masses. Additionally, ever since Pervez Musharraf’s departure it is my opinion that current Pakistani leadership cannot discount the threat of a military coup, or elements of the security services (police and military) joining a popular uprising — with their weapons. Even if the government shuts down internet and cellphone service, Pakistan’s high-density urban population will continue to communicate using simple methods of decades past: vehicle-mounted loudspeakers and bull horns.

Pakistan’s security forces are likely sufficient to contain even large-scale uprisings, but not without substantial civilian casualties and property loss. This is assuming, of course, that elements of these services refrain from joining the rebellion.

The United States (from a purely self-serving standpoint) is making a mistake in turning its back on long-standing regional allies as this sends a message to other rulers and their security services that the U.S. may stand aside and allow events to run their course. America should also reconsider encouraging opposition forces through the use of social networking sites. [See: Inteltrends’ Special Report: The role of social networking websites in global unrest, and, as a further example, Google Launches Service Letting Egyptians Tweet by Phone.

An editorial in today’s Daily Times (Lahore, Pakistan) takes note of the simmering situation there. It reads, in part:

One should in any case be cautious in dismissing the possibility of a movement of the people in Pakistan. However, there is another dimension to the situation here, which could be the cause of great concern. After four decades of nurturing of jihadis and extremists, any popular revolt will be at risk of being hijacked by extremist forces, who have recently rallied together on the issue of the blasphemy laws and are not in a mood to arrest the momentum of their campaign against the government. In these circumstances, the people of Pakistan have the sorry option between an inept and corrupt political leadership and the entire spectrum of right-wing forces from centre-right to extreme right. The decline of the liberal, democratic and progressive community is at the heart of this crisis. Unless these forces strengthen their cadre, induct fresh blood into their ranks and mount a challenge to the extremists, Pakistan has little hope of salvation.

Recent history has shown that countries which have overthrown unpopular dictators are not necessarily pro-Western once a new government replaces them. [See Stanislav Mishin’s analysis: How the Muslim Brotherhood Saved the U.S. Dollar.]

[End.]
__________

Steve in Wisconsin is a former deputy sheriff with travels in Africa, Asia and Central America. His primary blog is inteltrends.wordpress.com.

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Muslim masses begin to move. West fears Islamic revolution.

The following article is reprinted with permission from Kavkaz Center, Caucasus Emirate (mujahideen) news agency.
 

Muslim masses begin to move. West fears Islamic revolution.
©  Kavkaz Center
January 31, 2011  21:16

The popular uprising changed the regime of dictator Ben Ali in Tunis and, apparently, Mubarak will be the next who will have to go, says the Indonesian newspaper The Jakarta Globe.

Some experts have even compared the wave of popular demonstrations in Muslim countries with the fall of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of Communism in Europe – events that nobody predicted until they actually happened – and that Tunisia and Egypt are the beginning of a wave that will sweep away other notoriously autocratic regimes in the Islamic world as well.

As Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center noted, the “barrier of fear that so far kept the Muslim masses under the control of their ruling elites has been broken by the Tunisian revolt”.

After Tunisia protests began in Egypt, Algeria, Jordan and Yemen. These developments have put the West in a quandary.

Both Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt have over the years received considerable support from Western countries. America has been supporting Egypt to the tune of billion a year. Tunisia was the “poster boy” of the IMF.

Even in spite of the fact that many demonstrations in Tunisia are under the slogans of “freedom and democracy”, Western countries are afraid of supporters of political Islam coming to power.

Yet, it could be argued that an Islamic takeover is still the most likely outcome of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Syria, Jordan and Yemen, says The Jakarta Globe.

For although Islamic forces might seem largely absent in the protests right now, anyone familiar with the region knows that Islamic sentiments and inclinations have always been strong among its residents.

This is proven by the fact that the burial of Mohammed Bouazizi, the young Tunisian who set himself alight in protest against Ben Ali and thereby started the popular uprising, featured slogans like “The martyr is loved by Allah!”

And also by the fact that the organizers of the demonstration in Egypt on Tuesday felt themselves forced to ask the demonstrators not to show their religious views, and begged the people to bring only Egyptian flags and no religious symbols.

Nevertheless, the protests started off with a mass prayer in the square where the people gathered.

The fact that Muslims do not want democracy and secular way of development, has been shown by numerous opinion polls. The most recent PEW survey showed that 85% of Egyptians and 91% of Indonesians favor the presence of Islam in politics. 82% of Egyptians, 70% of Jordanians, and 40% of Indonesians support the introduction of sharia law such as stoning for adultery and the death penalty for apostasy.

Therefore, it is possible that the word freedom Muslims understand not as permissiveness and disrespect for religious laws, as in the West, but rather to live according to Islam. For instance, Tunisia banned the Islamic headscarf and threw women in prison for wearing it.

Although western media outlets are silent about this, we must recognize the popular uprisings in the Arab countries are associated with Islam. While the revolutionaries do not call for the establishment of an Islamic state, but by time the revolution can turn in this direction.

Meanwhile, Western diplomats and analysts predict that the growing instability in the country will present fresh challenges for U.S. and “Israel”, which are considered “masters” of the Middle East, says CBS.

“Egypt is now witnessing a major political tsunami with consequences for its surrounding region”, warns an Arab diplomat from a Middle Eastern country who served in Cairo until last August. Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the diplomat warned of “a variety of dangers” following a regime change in Egypt.

Going forward, he listed the emerging possibilities, ranging from “a significant rise of Islamic militants in Egypt who will take a harder line towards the U.S. and Israel”, to “Egypt becoming a symbol of change for others to follow”.

While President Mubarak for now appears to be defying the odds, Egypt is becoming increasingly locked in a state of growing paralysis that is forcing many analysts to resign themselves to a regime change.

Meanwhile, the return of Mohamed El-Baradei to lead the protests has raised the possibility of a future government led by a figure who will pursue internal reforms while retaining links to the U.S., “Israel” and other outside powers.

Analysts warn a future democratic regime elected through a popular vote is likely to also give political gains to Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood, or “Akhwan al muslimeen”.

Mubarak, in his three decades as Egypt’s president, has frequently presented himself to foreign powers as the most effective bulwark against “hard line Islamists”.

Nevertheless, the possibility of “Akhwans” coming to power is even real.

“Akhwan al muslimeen” has assumed a role as the key representative of Egypt’s underdog. In a volatile situation as we have today, these people have the perfect opportunity to be heard as never before,” says a second Arab diplomat who until 2009 served at his country’s embassy in Cairo.

“I believe events in Egypt have a real chance of spilling over. This is a volcano with real lava waiting to spill over,” said a Pakistani security official.

Department of Monitoring
Kavkaz Center

[End.]

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STANISLAV MISHIN: How the Muslim Brotherhood Saved the U.S. Dollar

The following column is reprinted with permission from Stanislav Mishin, a regular contributor to Russian newspaper Pravda.
 

How the Muslim Brotherhood Saved the U.S. Dollar
©  Stanislav Mishin
Source:  Mat Rodina
January 30, 2011

There are two truths that the Anglo Elites know all too well: democracy in the West means a ruling oligarchy with good PR, democracy in the Middle East means Islamic Jihadists and Fundamentalists. This has been a fact for many years and is not, in any way a shock or disconnect for any of the American elites now backing “democracy” revolutions.

1.  Iranian revolution, 1978-1979: Mass protests by a wide coalition against the King. Result? Mullahs take over.

2.  Egypt has free parliamentary elections. Results? The Muslim Brotherhood becomes the second most powerful party in the country, before being quickly banned.

3.  Americans allow free elections in Iraq. Results? Islamist parties become the main power blocks in power.

4.  Palestinians have free elections: Voters protest against corrupt regime. Result? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.

5.  Beirut Spring: Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Druze unite against Syrian control. Moderate government gains power. Result? Hezbollah is now the main political force in Lebanon.

6.  Algeria holds free elections: Voters back moderate Islamist group. Result? Military coup; Islamists turn (or reveal their true thinking) radical; tens of thousands of people killed.

Quite simply, the majority of the population has an insane infatuation with extremist Islam, be it Shiite or Sunni. Again, none of this is a surprise to the owners of the Anglo sphere. So why are they so actively backing revolutions and over throws throughout the Middle East?

Already a revolution has swept out the sectarian dictator of Tunisia, with Islamists quickly moving in. Exiled leader of Tunisian Islamist party returning to role in ‘new era of democracy’.

Protests, demonstrations and revolutions have now spread to Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Albania, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Egypt is by far, the worst hit, with the government teetering, mass looting and violence becoming the norm and the Muslim Brotherhood riding high.

All of this, of course is nothing new, it is a rehash of past and present events. So, my astute readers are now asking, again, why are the Anglo Elites servicing these revolutions and how will this save the U.S. dollar, or at least stave off its death for a few more years?

To answer that one must understand that to be a vassal, er, an ally of the Anglos is worse than to be an enemy. At least an enemy knows where he stands, while an ally will be used and when his or her utilization has reached its max, will be betrayed, back stabbed and sold out as best suits the Anglos, be it an Irishman or a Half Arab who sits in the Oval Office.

So now the time has come for a new round of betrayals, to prop up the USD at the expense of allies. You see, dear reader, the U.S. dollar is the exchange currency for Oil and Gas and the higher the price, the more the USD is demanded. The more that is demanded, to buy the more expensive oil and gas, the more debt currency the U.S. private Federal Reserve gets to print up and drop off on the world, allowing for accumulation of real resources, worth real value, as well as continuing pointless Marxist programs and the off-shoring of American hyper inflation to the rest of humanity.

This is nothing new. The U.S. ‘colour revolutions’ were used in the Central Asian states, to create havoc in areas adjacent to oil. The first was in Uzbekistan, where the socialist dictator and U.S. ally, Karimov, has been designated for removal by a U.S.-sponsored Islamic revolution. Unfortunately for the Americans, Karimov had no problem massacring the American paid for revolutionaries. He followed this by ousting the U.S. base on his lands and running to Moscow for protection.

The U.S. dollar did not get its intended boost in the Central Asian territories, at that time, however, the Americans did not give up. Even if a revolution fails in the directly affected area, one can be staged in an adjacent area which will lead to further instability in the intended area, thus driving up the price of oil and gas. To that end, the Americans created and backed the civil war in Tajikistan, where Uzbeki fanatics, in the south of the country now have defacto rule and will export their jihad to their own mother country, thus ensuring high levels of instability for decades to come.

To that same end, the Americans are backing the revolutions on the periphery of the main oil fields of the Middle East, in full knowledge that this will spill further and further into the oil producing regions. That is the plan, after all.

Tunisia, itself, a small time oil producer, accounts for 40,000 barrels/day.

Algeria and Yemen have also faced mass protests, funded and organized by Western NGOs, even as the owners of those NGOs pretend to be sympathetic to the rulers of the countries in question. However, as in Uzbekistan, these rulers have and will continue to respond with massive force, making sure that their U.S.-sponsored, home grown Islamics do not get very far. In Yemen, early Sunday, the government arrested Tawakul Karman, a prominent journalist and member of the Islamist party Isiah. He had organized protests through text messages and emails. All of the Western press are playing their roll, screaming to the high heavens about this Islamic fundamentalist’s follow on release and her love of freedom, even though Fundamentalist Islam believes in Sharia and has no freedom, other than the right to murder unbelievers.

Jordan, one of the most stable regional powers, has also been rocked by protests, as more than 5,000 people took to the streets, demanding the King give up his power, to “the people”.

Egypt has not been so lucky. Its government has proven, so far, to be weak, with many in the military openly siding with the Islamic Brotherhood and its Western NGO backers. Looting in the streets is rampant, as is direct confrontation with those special police forces, and special forces, still loyal to the dictatorship. The end is only a matter of time.

Egypt itself is responsible for the production of 680,000 barrels of oil per day. While this is about 1-2% of the world total output, Egypt further plays a massive role, with the Suez Canal and the alternate Surned pipeline, of passing an additional 1 million barrels of crude bound for the European and American markets. It is bad enough with the Somali pirates pushing up the price of oil, or why do you think that a trigger-happy America willing to invade just about anyone it can, including once upon a time Somalia, suddenly is too timid to deal with a bunch of rag tag pirates?

Other protests have erupted in Morocco, Libya, Lebanon and even Albania. All around the edges of the major oil players.

More worrisome than disruptions to Egypt’s oil production is the prospect that the unrest spreads to other hard-line states in the region, such as Libya and Algeria, both members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Other countries in the region, including Tunisia and Yemen, have been wracked by anti-government protests in recent weeks, though neither is a major oil producer.

“If this thing spreads across the North African continent, gets into Libya, Algeria, then you’ve got trouble,” said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report energy newsletter.

Finally, this whole process is now spilling into Saudi Arabia and soon possibly into the whole of the Gulf princedoms. The oil shocks will be profound and will be quick.

Already, with just the Egyptian upheavals, and as expected, just on the Thursday and Friday violence, oil went up over 4%, some $3.70 per barrel. Another similar rise can be expected this week, if not higher. When, not if, Mubarak’s government falls, oil should be expected to hit close to the $100 mark. With Nigeria also sinking into civil war, oil may well peak over $100/barrel by the end of February.

The American media and their other Western underlings and affiliates, are doing their part in colouring these as peoples’ fights for freedom and human rights. Of course they know full well what this will lead to: Islamic fundamentalism, which is the only result that this has ever led to. Then when this happens, when the correct end result is in place, those very same self-serving hypocrites, will throw up their hands and declare that they are shocked that those stupid, dirty Arabs could not make any go of “freedom” even after all the help they were given.

The Americans have been preparing for this for years. Many foolishly blame this on Obama, he is a part of this, but his is only the final chapter in the preparation for one of the last ditch efforts to stave off Judgment Day of the U.S. dollar and its debt built and house of cards economy.

“What happened in Georgia with the Rose Revolution and Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2003-2004 was part of a long-term strategy orchestrated by the Pentagon, the State Department and various U.S.-financed NGOs like Freedom House and National Endowment for Democracy to create pro-NATO regime change in those former Soviet Union areas and to literally encircle Russia,” author and researcher William Engdahl told RT.

“What is going on in the Middle East with the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia that we saw a few days ago, and now in Egypt with Mubarak in his 80s, and obviously a regime that is not exactly the most stable one, we have a food crisis taking place as a backdrop and the IMF coming and telling these countries to eliminate their state food subsidies so you have, of course, the explosive background for popular unrest. Within that you have these NGOs, like Freedom House, training activists and trade unions and various other organizations to demand democracy, demand human rights and so forth,” he added.

This earlier report by RT [“TV Novosti”] sums the process up even better:

Dr. William Robinson is one of the foremost experts on Washington’s democracy promotion initiatives, he wrote the book ‘Promoting Polyarhcy.’

“In Latin America, in Eastern Europe with the Velvet Revolutions, in Africa, in the Middle East, really all over the world, the U.S. set up these different mechanisms now for penetrating these civil societies in the political systems of countries that are going to be intervened and to assure the outcome is going to be pleasing to Washington’s foreign policy objectives,” said Robinson.

Lawrence Wilkerson, the former Chief of Staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell said, “We do this through surrogates and non-governmental organization and through people who are less suspecting of the evil that may lurk behind their actions than perhaps they were before. Have we learned some lessons in that regard? You bet! Do we do it better? You bet! Is it still just as heinous as it has always been? You bet!”

The Americans call this process Creative Destruction, that is the new catch phrase for world revolutions, no different than that which was exported from our own country while it was ruled by Anglo financed Marxists. While the PR may be promising and alluring, the results will be misery and death for those in ground zero: with tourism and industry fleeing fundamentalist regimes, resulting in yet more starvation and poverty, and a massive enrichment for the top 1% of the Anglo elite who could not give a bigger damn, no matter what their fully owned media mouth pieces may be saying.

The massive increases in the price of oil, as well as the increased demand for weapons by those states who border these areas, will line the pockets of thousands of executives and politicians in America, and to a smaller level, of England, for decades to come. If a war or three are spawned from this, even better.

Furthermore, with refugees and terrorism flooding Europe, which is finally starting to react violently to the virus that is attacking the body social at large, and the confiscation of European industry in Northern Africa, the Euro will be on the front lines of these new Islamic plagues, like never before. It will take another beating, with the dollar remaining a “safe” investment. Just another big plus, not to mention the new missions for NATO and that military-industrial complex, this will generate.

As for the American serfs, the little people? Well, the $6-10/gallon ($1.50-$2.25/liter) gasoline will crush them. Sure, the socialist welfare programs that their government will finance by selling yet more dollars, will help some, but it is a mild treatment for a terminal disease. Their falling wages, in the face of mass and growing unemployment as well as soaring inflation, will drag the last of the middle class into poverty and slavery. However, unlike the Arabs or the French or most other people of the world, they will do what their British cousins have been doing for the past 30 years, put up a stiff upper lip and accept this as their reality. And yes, as before, for the world at large, their owners in NYC, DC and London, could not really give a bigger damn.

A passive people, believing in their own illusionary freedoms and high on their own self importance, make for the best slaves and no where are there more such slaves than in the USA.

The rest of us will also have to live with an ever more violent world, courtesy of the biggest sponsor of Islamic insanity the world has ever had the sorry state of knowing.

[End.]

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INTELTRENDS: The role of social networking websites in global unrest

©  Inteltrends
By Steve in Wisconsin
January 29, 2011
 

Introduction

During the anti-government protests following Iran’s 2009 election it was reported that protestors were using social networking sites, such as Twitter, to muster their forces. Iran accused Western powers of having a hand in the rebellion and coordinating these activities via the internet. The same social networks played a role in ‘color revolutions’ in Europe and elsewhere.

Allegations that Facebook, Twitter, and Google in particular, serve the interests of intelligence agencies abound; Twitter serving primarily in rapid communications of short messages and instructions.

Social networking played a role in ousting Tunisian president Zine Al Ben Ali. So much so, in fact, that Egyptian authorities quickly shut down the internet at the onset of the uprising there this week.

Social networks as assets of the authorities

As a former law enforcement officer I see the investigative advantages of social networking sites, particularly Facebook.

Facebook links individuals with their friends, family members, acquaintances and social circles. Photographs of all of these people are available – having been voluntarily submitted by the people themselves. The worldwide popularity of Facebook extends to young and old alike, rich and poor, successful or impoverished. From simply a police perspective, a fugitive, drug dealer or criminal can be quickly linked to family and friends — intelligence that can point to his or her whereabouts, criminal associates, and those likely to hide him from authorities. Top this off with high-resolution photos of everyone involved and you have an indispensible investigative tool that extends from the local level up to global intelligence.

Google complements social networks in collecting information

With regard to Google, does anyone but me think it’s unusual that a “search engine” engages in satellite photography (Google Earth) and photographing city streets and neighborhoods (Google Street View)? Google’s acquisition of Blogger, Feedburner, and other web assets help to assemble pieces of an intelligence puzzle, i.e. the subscriber lists to blog newsfeeds and emails, the identity of blog owners, which blogs link to other blogs having common political or ideological interests, etc. Recent allegations that Google was involved in collecting information about home wireless networks shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.

Could social networking backfire on the West?

The same networks that were instrumental in fomenting Iran’s anti-government protests now appear to have been used by Tunisians and Egyptians seeking to overthrow their respective governments. The recent article in Algeria’s Ennahar newspaper, titled “Facebook, a U.S. program to bring down Arab regimes“, may have it all wrong. Rather than being used by America to ‘bring down Arab regimes’ it appears that Facebook and Twitter may have been harnessed by the masses to bring down pro-U.S. regimes instead.

The inherent danger of social networking sites is the ability to use this format for secret communications.

I bought a book in South Africa in the early 1980s, set during the waning days of Rhodesia’s white rule, wherein the phrase “See you in November” was used in telephone conversations to convey the message that a covert SAS operation was a “go” – the phrase itself being so innocent when used in general conversation that anyone listening in would be oblivious to what was being communicated. The same applies to social networking sites today. Instructions can be conveyed to hundreds or even thousands of individuals by posting messages of seemingly innocent nature. This may yet come back to bite the West in the backside.

America has long associated freedom of speech and internet access as indicators of the level of democracy in foreign lands. Governments such as China, for example, are routinely condemned for blocking access to Facebook, Google and YouTube. However, it is precisely because these governments are aware of the threat posed by these sites that they are blocked. China learned the power of the internet first hand when the Falun Gong religious sect mobilized 10,000 followers at a moments notice to protest against the government. This was a wake-up call for the Chinese who promptly banned the sect and blocked their website.

Using social networks to implement regime change

The full extent of social networking sites’ ability to topple governments has yet to be seen but it is likely that pro-Western authoritarian regimes will be targeted. As I wrote in an earlier article (deleted when Blogger/Google closed down my previous newsblog, hence I’m on WordPress now) the unrest in North Africa, the Caucasus, Middle East and Central Asia must be viewed within the larger context of an Islamic Caliphate, rather than as mere regional conflicts within the Islamic world. Until analysts see “the big picture” the situation will continue to deteriorate and Western interference in these conflicts will only exacerbate the problem.

UPDATE: See also:
Google Launches Service Letting Egyptians Tweet by Phone
Al-Manar, 01.Feb.2011
Egypt: Google executive will become a ‘hero’ of the revolution upon release
AKI, 07.Feb.2011
Twitter, Facebook look engaged in U.S. policy, Armenian blogger says
PanARMENIAN, 07.Feb.2011
Egypt:  Google ‘very, very proud’ of cyber revolutionary
Telegraph, 16.Feb.2011

[End.]
__________

Steve in Wisconsin is a former deputy sheriff with travels in Africa, Asia and Central America. His primary blog is inteltrends.wordpress.com.

Revised since originally posted.

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Facebook, a U.S. program to bring down Arab regimes

[Blogmaster note:  The Arabic version of this article is longer and includes more information, however I am unable to create an automatic translation link because the URL contains Arabic characters. You can do this yourself by clicking on the Arabic logo below, highlight and copy the URL. Then click here, select “Arabic to English” and paste the URL in the box provided. Click translate. — Steve.]

The following article appeared in the English version of Algerian newspaper Ennahar.

Facebook, a U.S. program to bring down Arab regimes
©  Ennahar
By Ismail Fellah
January 29, 2011

When the Tunisian revolt broke, a few days ago, opinions were divided on the role played by social networking sites including Facebook in this revolution, in exorcising the fear of a regime that understands only the language of force.

The same scenario seems to repeat itself in Egypt and confirms that Facebook has become a formidable weapon that plays an important role in demonstrations against the regimes in many Arab countries.

Apart from the legitimacy of claims and protests in some Arab countries, what becomes certain is that there is an organized campaign, directed by forces that lie behind the curtains, and whose objective is the establishment of American-style democracy after failing to reach a democracy on the armor. [i.e. by using tanks, military force — Inteltrends.]

Let us just remember what happened two years ago, when the British intelligence services had operated in 2008, Facebook to recruit agents and informants in all regions of the world. The British Foreign Minister himself recognized that the services of his country have used Facebook to recruit.

[End.]

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Algeria to host rapid reaction force

The following article is republished with permission from Magharebia.
 

Algeria to host rapid reaction force
Source:  Magharebia
By Walid Ramzi
January 27, 2011

*  A decision was made to establish a base of African Standby Forces in Algeria as part of a push to settle regional conflicts without external intervention.

Algeria will host the headquarters of the North African Regional Capability (NARC) under the African Standby Forces (ASF). Under an agreement inked on Tuesday (January 25th), Algiers will be the seat of both NARC headquarters and the force’s administration.

“By housing that key logistic base, Algeria has become the first country in North Africa to complete that important phase,” Foreign Ministry Director for Africa Nourredine Aouam told APS [Algérie Presse Service].

In 2002, African leaders agreed to establish a rapid-reaction force to handle the crises that take place on the continent in lieu of international forces based in a number of African states. The outburst of conflicts and the inability of some countries to ensure their own security led heads of state to set up the ASF within the African Union framework.

“Standby forces have the right to immediately intervene in case of a conflict or crisis in the region,” says the agreement, signed by Foreign Ministry General Director Fouad Bouattoura and NARC representative Nefatti El-Fitouri Zarras.

The act “reflects Algeria’s strong commitment, before the Peace and Security Council, affiliated to the African Union, that enables the African continent to play its role in managing peace and security,” Zarras noted.

The base will be located in the wilaya of Jijel, 350km east of the capital.

NARC is one of the five regional brigades, which constitute the force. The ASF is made up of an executive secretariat, a planning mechanism and a Libya-based financing fund. One brigade is located in Egypt, and two administrative bases are located in Algeria and Egypt. Algeria decided to contribute two military regiments to the brigade and a third from the military police, while Egypt contributed one regiment.

The activation of the force was scheduled for the end of 2010 so as to allow for “speedy and efficient” intervention in relation to the numerous crises raging in some parts of Africa. The ASF will undertake six kinds of missions, including military assistance for peace, humanitarian missions to aid emigrants or displaced people, administrative missions, as well as missions calling for disarmament.

The rapid-reaction troops must intervene immediately in cases of massacres that claim the lives of civilians, when the international community does not show prompt response to the unrest on the African continent.

Experts, however, expressed concerns about the costs and constraints of implementing the AFS.

“Spreading an African force will run into financial obstacles,” strategy analyst Omar Abdi said, adding the budget of the African Union Peacekeeping Fund is almost 300 times lower than that of the UN Peacekeeping Forces.

“Financing is still a problem facing the actual realisation of the African Union with regards to maintaining peace and stability, despite promises from some donors such as the EU, to offer a grant of 250 million euros dedicated to reinforcing the capabilities of ASF in managing crises,” he added.

According to AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra, during the period between 2011 and 2015 the ASF is expected to “attain full operational capabilities”.

[End.]
__________

Magharebia is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defence, Africa Command.

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Muslim Brotherhood expert Alaya Allani discusses Maghreb Salafism

The following article is republished with permission from Magharebia.

Muslim Brotherhood expert discusses Maghreb Salafism
Source:  Magharebia
By Houda Trabelsi
October 1, 2010

Alaya Allani is a professor of contemporary history at the University of Manouba in Tunis and a specialist in political Islam. He has published several studies on the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist currents in the Arab Maghreb. Magharebia sat down with Allani in Tunis to discuss the dangers of the spread of Salafism and what he sees as the root causes of the problem.

Magharebia:  You have warned against the dangers of militant Salafist groups. What exactly do you mean?

Alaya Allani:  First of all, we must stress the need to differentiate between Salafism as a conservative religious current that has been known throughout history for its call to return to pure faith and for its insistence on its stances that reject violence and hold to the legitimacy of rulers and the need to disobey them, even if there were some violations committed, as long as those rulers preserved the identity of the nation, and between Salafism in its contemporary meaning, which coincided with the appearance of the political Islam current.

We now generally talk about appeasing Salafism and militant Salafism; scientific Salafism and another jihadist Salafism. In general, we can say that the militant Salafist groups you mentioned in your question are mainly represented in the jihadist Salafist groups and in some other scientific Salafist currents.

There are common factors that led to the appearance of jihadist currents. These currents are either external or internal. No one can deny the role played by some Western countries in supporting the Afghan jihad to overthrow the communist regime in Afghanistan, and the assistance rendered in this effort by some Gulf countries.

As to internal factors, tension exists between the prevailing jihadist currents and local Muslim governments because of differences in understanding religious texts. Jihadists usually embrace the apparent meaning of texts, accusing all those who oppose their understanding of texts of being infidels, and permit the use of arms against those who oppose them. This is the most dangerous thing in these groups, as there is absence of dialog and physical liquidation becomes the prevailing form of dealing.

Magharebia:  How widespread are these types of groups?

Allani:  The militant Salafist groups are spread in all Muslim countries with varying degrees. Their presence in Asia, whether in Caucasus countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India or some Arab countries, has grown over the last two decades. As to Africa, except for Egypt, their presence is considered relatively new in the region. This may be linked to the implications of modernisation experiences in these countries, where the failure of pattern of development and rising rates of illiteracy played a role in the expansion of pockets of poverty.

The state no longer became the primary sponsor of economy and the main employer of individuals; something that contributed to the rising tensions. The most prominent example may be found in Algeria in October 1988 when there was popular anger over the deteriorating living conditions of the people and over some social and cultural problems and the inability of the state to meet the basic needs of population. In this environment, the Salafist current, as represented by the Islamic Salvation Front, tried to take advantage of this anger and entered into an intimidation battle with the authorities. The result was victims, bloodshed and cancellation of election results, and then outbreak of a long wave of terrorism that almost destroyed everything.

When we check the social base on which the Front built its presence, we find that the marginalised categories in popular and poor neighbourhoods gave their votes in large numbers to that group in the 1991 elections. In Morocco, investigations proved that most of the members of jihadist cells in that country hail from poor neighbourhoods or shantytowns.

The liberal, Islamic and leftist movements started presenting their alternatives. However, the alternative offered by the Islamic Salvation Front, which included a minority of moderate Islamists and a majority of extremists with Salafist inclinations (whether scientific or jihadist), won the trust of voters. This led to the cancellation of election results in 1992, and after that Algeria entered into a bloody decade of terrorism in which 100,000 victims were killed.

Then al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) came at the beginning of the third millennium to further confuse cards and to involve some African countries, such as Mali, Chad and Niger which had no previous experience with the activities of Islamic armed groups.

Magharebia:  What are the most important principles of Salafist groups present in the Maghreb?

Allani: The principles of the jihadist Salafist current in the Maghreb region are derived from the literature of symbols of al-Qaeda: Bin Laden, al-Zawahri, al-Maqdisi, Abu Qatada and others. This literature urges people to consider jihad as an individual duty rather than a collective obligation, and it accuses the society and state of kufr because of their negligence in implementing God’s Sharia.

Magharebia: Are the factors that led to the growth of these Salafist groups in the Arab Maghreb political, social or ideological, or are there any other factors?

Allani:  The growth of these Salafist groups in the Arab Maghreb is more due to political and social factors than it is to ideological factors. The wide gap between the social classes increases the state of social tensions, and the violent dealing with ethnic and cultural diversity has contributed to the instigation of sectarian feelings.

As to ideological factors, they come last.

[End.]
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Magharebia is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defence, Africa Command.

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African coast is full of American and French spies

The following post is reprinted with permission from Roads to Iraq, intel blog.

African coast is full of American and French spies
©  Roads to Iraq
May 27, 2010

About a month ago, the Algerian Army Chief of Staff of the Algerian, Lieutenant General Ahmad Saleh Kaid told his African coast-line counterparts that:

The absence of coordinated collective action to deter the “terror” threats, will open the doors to the foreign intervention.

These are not empty words, Algerian newspaper Echorouk warned that the African coast “Al-Saheel” is full of French and U.S. spies., pretending to be tourists.

The newspaper confirmed that under the slogan of “fighting terrorism”, African countries in the region invite foreign [agents], who want to get involved at any cost, to get their hand on the “war on terror” card that is usable in various other fields.

Countries such as Mali, and Niger witnesses large presence of American and French military officers in civilian clothes visit the countries as tourists, linked to a complex network of military and tribal local contacts, in order to obtain as much information as possible about terrorist activity in the desert region, since the successive abductions and killings of European and American nationals.

The newspaper said that the struggle to control the sources of energy in Africa and maintain secure routes in the coast “Sahel”, as well as to reduce the China and Russia surge in the region.

Economic spying has become a classic geopolitical strategy of the modern times, but it is remarkable that institutions that were originally trained to do polit­ical and security spying are “converted” to do the economy spying.

[End.]