Disunity among Caucasus Emirate mujahideen commanders is a plus for Russia
The following article is reprinted with permission from Kavkaz Center, Caucasus Emirate (mujahideen) news agency.
On the latest developments in Caucasus Emirate
Source: Kavkaz Center
August 16, 2010, 14:40 Emirate time
Recent developments in the Caucasus Emirate in connection with the famous statement of the CE Emir Dokku Abu Usman and the statement of some commanders of Nokhchicho (AKA Chechnya / Ichkeria) province, who announced their withdrawal from the authority of Dokku Umarov, stimulated discussions in Western and Russian press about the prospects of the Emirate.
One of the first to make public statements were members of a London group of Chechen national democrats, who hastened to interpret the incident as a victory of “national forces over Wahhabis”, although among the main characters of “national forces” happens to be an Arab volunteer Emir Muhanned, who under strict democratic rules must be considered as “an ideologist of Wahhabis in the Caucasus”.
Chechen national democrats, however, flatly declared that “Aslanbek Vadalov is a supporter of other views and is not affected by ideologists of Wahhabism”.
This, inter alia, said a London-based former Minister of the Chechen government, Zakayev, who was not embarrassed by the fact that the direct commander of Vadalov and his closest associate is a “Wahhabi” Emir Muhanned.
It is to be mentioned thereupon that another “national force”, waging war against “Wahhabis”, is a Russian puppet Kadyrov, whom Chechen national democrats offered “national reconciliation” long time ago.
Whatever the case, the claims by Zakayev and Co. that Aslambek Vadalov is a nationalist, who is tired of Jihad and wants to negotiate with Moscow (about what?), raises serious doubts.
It is to be also recalled that previous Chechen leaders, for whom Zakayev organized negociations with the Russians, were killed, and the role of the former Ichkerian minister in this dark story requires an investigation.
Meanwhile, against the background of duty dirt and shameless lies about millions of dollars on accounts of Dokku Umarov, which are permanently poured into media by the London group, Russian press actively speculates about “imminent collapse of the Caucasus Emirate”.
It is impossible not to notice the fact that virtually all Russian and Zionist media outlets unusually aggressively market the video with the statement of the Chechen commanders about withdrawal from the subordination to Dokku Umarov, display the video on their websites and give a link to it.
The Kommersant newspaper known for its hostile anti-Islamic stance and public loyalty to Chechen national democrats, quotes Zakayev, who repeats his mantra-type lamentations that “the project of the Caucasus Emirate is surely doomed now”.
The Kommersant claims that “Chechen rebels are tired of this senseless Jihad, which Dokku Umarov calls for”.
In his turn, a columnist at a APN Web site, president of the Institute of Eastern Partnership and citizen of so-called “Israel”, a certain Avraham Shmulevich draws parallels with the Imamate of Shamil in the 19 century and recalls that after Chechen naibs of Shamil stopped supporting the Imam, the Russian-Caucasian war soon ended.
Shmulevich, like Zakayev, is also very hopeful that recent events in the Caucasus Emirate would lead to its collapse.
“How essential are these events for the future of the armed resistance and the entire North Caucasus?” – Shmulevich asks himself and answers, also himself: “It seems that very, very much. Several thousand people in the North Caucasus, in Russia and abroad were under the oath to Umarov.
The leadership of any underground movement is largely virtual and conditional: command-online is impossible in principle, operations are planned and carried out largely independently, admission of new members and formation of new units are also carried out on the spot.
However, there is a sense of belonging to a common name, common ideology and coordination at a level of overall strategy and intentions that the underground is a unified and effective force. But when the common name, common brand is removed, a single fist inevitably disintegrates. This is even more important for the armed underground, acting in a large area and consisting of representatives of many ethnic groups, who are sometimes hostile to each other. Most important is that this structure is a self-replicating matrix.
The Caucasus Emirate, in spite of the apparent virtuality, is a powerful and formidable force. Due to the effect of a self-replicating matrix, its force was much greater than the sum of the forces of its separate member units.
The actions of the Chechen commanders reduce this effect to zero.
If the Islamist underground cannot be structured throughout the North Caucasus, then its role as a political factor is greatly reduced. Out of a phenomenon, which is potentially powerful to determine – and is now determining – the fates of the Caucasus and the entire post-Soviet space, it will become a “local factor” which is important only within small regions”, predicts Avraham Shmulevich.
However, not all commentators believe that the Caucasus Emirate will disintegrate.
So, the Swiss Web site ISN says that “recent events revealed a schism in the leadership of the North Caucasus-based insurgency and their networks, but it will have no long-term impact on the network’s capabilities”.
The site writes: “However, while internal divisions are bound to weaken the insurgency in a short-term period, they will be largely irrelevant for the North Caucasus-based networks in the longer term.
“Such discords will not have any significant impact on these networks’ overall combat capabilities because they operate autonomously to achieve their tactical objectives, while their overarching goal of a pan-Caucasian caliphate represents an inspiring unifying vision…”
It is to be reminded in conclusion that the judge of the Supreme Sharia Court of the Caucasus Emirate, Emir Seyfullah, in his recent statement testified that the withdrawal from Bayat (subordination) to the CE Emir Dokku Umarov of a group of Chechen commanders is illegal and can not be accepted.
He called on Emir Aslambek to resume his oath to Dokku Umarov and summoned the chief instigator of the incident, Emir Muhanned, to the Sharia Court.
“I do not want to make public all (to call it mildly) violations of Muhannad”, said Emir Seyfullah, and stressed that he is ready to come to any place in the Caucasus Emirate, indicated by Emir Dokku Umarov, to hold a session of the Sharia Court.
Department of Monitoring